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史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

互联网风投与管理者,创业企业是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一

 
 
 

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关于我

我是美国风投创始人和管理合作伙伴,曾担任过Jupiter Media公司VP,Paul Kagan Associates机构分析师,我的创业企业Applied Semantics2003年被谷歌收购,是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一。现着重投资互联网领域,对中国互联网和网络新媒体有深刻研究。我写的《零重力1.0》和《零重力2.0》成为彭博社最畅销书籍,比尔盖茨、杨致远也读过我写的商业报告。在中国,我给网易科技独家供稿。hapn.cool try it!

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2010年美国科技行业什么最火?  

2010-01-05 22:35:32|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

 

 我认为是两个东西:

1)  移动技术

2) wi-fi无线上网

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

我看到移动技术正在加速成长,成为世界大多数能连接互联网的选择。 数亿计拥有旧手机的人们将会更新他们的手机,并且参与到手机革命中来。

驱使这个革命的就是苹果公司的iPhone和像HTC这样想成为iPhone的公司。

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Wi-fi无线上网的故事将会嵌入在每一个新打印机,相机,和收音机等等。(等一下,他们还在生产收音机?)

从经济方面看,我认为2010年可能会强于2009年。如果你观察一下全球的股市以及一些为其铺路的公司,将会发现2009年还是比较强劲的。

如果说NASDAQ是一个指示灯的话,那么我们的玻璃杯就满了一半,因为股市上升了45%。在中国,上海股市上涨了79%, 这也是他们的玻璃杯还要更满一些。 还有,伦敦股市上涨23%,香港49%,日本19%。

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

谁在打头阵? 他们在2010年的展望又是怎么样的呢?

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

苹果公司  

苹果制造让人们觉得用了可以使他们的生活更加高效的产品,就是这么简单。我已经从1984年就在科技圈里了并且在还没有人拥有电脑的时候就卖了第一台苹果电脑。 苹果的中心产品就是iPhone,就是一个在你口袋里的移动电脑。它的平台和大量的应用程序使iPhone成为一个出类拔萃的产品。

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

但苹果的弱点就在于它只在每个国家与一个运营商签订专营合同。这样就会给iPhone的模仿者(比如像Android手机)一个机会去满足一个更大的市场。

试想一下,如果戴尔告诉你你只能用一个特定的ISP去上网,那么戴尔能卖出多少电脑?想象一下如果苹果允许任何一个运营商出售它的手机,那么苹果可以卖出10倍的iPhone从而把竞争对手击垮。

苹果给谷歌留了一个缺口,苹果需要使所有的运营商都可以出售iPhone,从而把市场据为己有。

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

谷歌     

谷歌搜索已经成为许多人的首选。 它已将变成了搜索的代名词。 谷歌在其他任何领域为成为第一的努力都已经失败。 结果它收购了占据市场榜首的YouTube(这任然不是一个好领域,视频播放是非常昂贵的)。 谷歌的长处在于搜索,如果它离搜索越远,那么它的对手就会来和它竞争。 Google Docs是和微软Office这个巨人对抗的小武器,就像它想用Gmail去刺伤微软的Exchange。

但是试想如果谷歌能够变为像维基百科那样成为开放资源会怎么样?

谷歌需要在2010年做什么:收购任何能够驱动搜索,移动技术和广告宣传的东西。风险投资公司不会去投资,所以谷歌会有一个很广阔的市场去选择。

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

雅虎    

现在的雅虎就是2000年的谷歌。 市值超过1500亿美元,好记的名字和超好的工作环境。是一个“不会做错事”的公司。然而它慢慢地忘记了发展方向,就好像每天吃一块儿糖但是忘了怎样恢复身材。

雅虎只有它过去的10%。 用户基础虽大但是“必须用”的客户少。 雅虎因为没有收购任何可以驱动网络和移动的技术而荒废了10年。

雅虎在2010年需要收购一些刚起步的公司和一些可以使它回到正规的公司,特别是在移动技术,广告和商务方面。 它需要有一个有干劲的收购团队趁着东西还便宜的时候赶紧收购。 估计在2010年底,收购这些公司的价格将会上涨。 趁早买。

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

微软   

微软面临的挑战是官僚主义。 鲸鱼怎么会像鲨鱼一样游动呢? 这就是我所说的“残余”问题。 一旦一个公司在任何领域都成为市场第一,那么它就会预计它的销售额会永远上涨。 这就是从Windows 95 和 Office95到现在的14年间所发生的,那个时代已经结束。

微软在2010年:Bing是一个不错的主意,我已经开始使用了一段时间。 在一些领域里它有高于对手的成绩。 但是,搜索正在改变,微软需要改变它的游戏策略去抗衡谷歌。秘密武器:现金。 微软需要在机会面前使自己做到真正全球化。

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Facebook   2010年的关键在于怎样使“可以有”改变为“必须有”。 Facebook声称它拥有3500万注册用户,但是又有多少人会因为Facebook的消失儿无法生活? 哪些是Facebook的“有用之物”?

哪些又是必须有的东西?

Twitter也是一样。 这个公司有很多公众视线,但是有什么是“必须用”的东西呢? RSS已经可以在更广的领域做到和Twitter一样的事,比140个字符更多的事。 期待更多的竞争对手来这里大展拳脚。

3D数码电影将会应为《阿凡达》而变得更加受欢迎。3D还有可能涉足电游和电视…但那也许会是在2011年…

What's going to be the hot U.S. technology stories of 2010?
Two things:
1) mobile
2) wi-fi

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

I see mobile accelerating its growth and becoming the computing platform of choice for most of the world's population that has a connection. People with older phones are going to be upgrading and joining the mobile revolution in the hundreds of millions.

Driving that is Apple's iPhone. And the copycat wannabe iPhones from companies like HTC.

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
For wi-fi the story will be embedded wi-fi in every new device from printers, cameras, radios, etc. (wait, they still make radios?).

Economically I think 2010 could be a much stronger year than 2009. And 2009 was a fairly strong year if you look at the stock markets worldwide and some companies that paved the way. Let's take a look.


Glass is half full if NASDAQ is any indicator. That's how far the stock index is up this year, up 45%. In China the glass is even fuller, with the Shanghai index up 79% year to date. London is up 23%. Hong Kong 49%.  Japan, 19%.

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客


Who's leading the charge? What's their outlook for 2010?

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Apple - Apple makes stuff people want to use that makes their lives more productive. It's that simple. I've been in tech since 1984 and sold the first Apple computers back when nobody had a computer, or a reason for one. The centerpiece of Apple is the iPhone, essentially a mobile computer in your pocket. The platform and abundance of apps make iPhone a breakthrough product.

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

The weakness in Apple's approach though is signing exclusive deals with one carrier per country. It leaves an opening for a rival to come in with a wannbe iPhone (like Android) and try and satisfy the wider market.

Imagine if Dell said you could only access the Web using one particular ISP. How many Dell PCs would it sell? Now imagine if Apple allowed any carrier to sell its phone, it would have sold 10 times more iPhones and locked out any competitor.

Apple is leaving a gap that Google will try and fill. Apple needs to make iPhone available to all carriers and lock in the market completely.

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

---

Google - Google search has become the default for many people. It has become synonymous with search. Every other area Google has tried to become the market leader it has failed so far. It ends up acquiring market leaders such as YouTube (which still isn't a great business to be in, video streaming is expensive). Google's strength relies on search and the more it moves away from search the more rivals can come in and compete. Google Docs, etc. are small weapons against the Microsoft Office giant and necessary. As is Gmail for enterprise, another stab at Microsoft email solution Exchange.

But imagine if Google thought more like Wikipedia and became open source for everything. Not open source as in 'adopt my open standard' monkey drip.

What Google needs to do in 2010: Buy anything that moves in search, mobile and advertising. The venture firms aren't investing so Google has a great shelf full of snappy startups to look at.

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
---

Yahoo - Yahoo was the Google of 2000. Market cap over $150 billion, great name, cool vibe. Fun place to work. The 'could do no wrong' company. And then it slowly lost its lead, like putting on body fat by eating one candy bar a day and forgetting how you got fit.

Yahoo's 10% of what it was then. The user base is still large but the "need to use" factor is low. Yahoo wasted a decade not acquiring anything that moved in Web, mobile and ads. Google even shopped itself to Yahoo very early on as the team didn't want to build a company vs. a technology.

Yahoo in 2010 needs to buy startups and companies to help it scale and regain footing, especially in mobile, ads and commerce areas. It needs an aggressive deal team to swoop in and buy, buy, buy while things are cheap. Towards the end of 2010 startup valuations and deals will probably be more expensive. Buy early.

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
---

Microsoft - The challenge for Microsoft is one of bureaucracy. How can a whale move like a shark? Too many people stirring the soup and not enough getting done. The problem is what I call the "residual" one. Once a company becomes a market leader in any area it sits back and thinks sales will continue forever, like an annuity. Upgrades to the installed base. And for 14 years that's what happened, since Windows 95 and Office 95. That era is over and the new one is network based solutions. Streamlined, essential functions, not bloatware.

Microsoft in 2010: Bing is a good move and I've been using it some of the time. It has superior results in some areas vs. rivals. However, the search game is changing and Microsoft needs more of a "game changer" in the field to dislodge Google. Some of that are deals such as Yahoo, Facebook, etc. But, again, Microsoft needs to buy and be in every network area and scale search by a huge factor. Secret weapon: cash. Has to break out and truly go global in opportunity.

2010年美国科技行业什么最火? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

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Facebook - the key for it in 2010 is going to be how does it shift from being "nice to have" to "need to have?" The firm claims 350 million registered users but how many could live without Facebook if it went away? What is the "utility" factor for Facebook? What is the "must use" factor?

Ditto for Twitter. Company has lots of press but what is the "need to use" factor? RSS does much of what Twitter does in a much broader way, more than 140 characters. Expect a lot of competitors in this space and lots of twists and turns.

---

3D digital movies are going to start being more and more popular thanks to Avatar 3D. 3D may also invade video gaming and TV...but maybe that's 2011...



 

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