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史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

互联网风投与管理者,创业企业是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一

 
 
 

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我是美国风投创始人和管理合作伙伴,曾担任过Jupiter Media公司VP,Paul Kagan Associates机构分析师,我的创业企业Applied Semantics2003年被谷歌收购,是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一。现着重投资互联网领域,对中国互联网和网络新媒体有深刻研究。我写的《零重力1.0》和《零重力2.0》成为彭博社最畅销书籍,比尔盖茨、杨致远也读过我写的商业报告。在中国,我给网易科技独家供稿。hapn.cool try it!

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乔布斯:科技界疯子  

2010-01-26 08:21:56|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

苹果公司在过去七八年来一直是能生产出惊艳小玩意儿的模范。不过苹果公司也曾遇到过很多问题以致于不得不想尽一切办法来寻求生存机会。

 

我们就来回顾一下苹果和乔布斯的历史:

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

苹果在上世纪90年代的PC市场争夺上惨败于微软,舆论将其原因归结为曲高和寡。的确,尽管苹果的电脑配置和用户界面赏心悦目,但是专注市场运作的能力帮助微软取得胜利。当然,苹果也曾战胜了施乐(Xerox),但历史是由最终胜利者书写的。

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

我们现在都知道乔布斯当年被迫离开苹果是因为苹果不满其过于直言不讳,这也是他的天性。苹果在那之后一段时间只取得了有限的成功,很大的程度沦为“技术行业必须避免的错误”的范例。苹果当时的经营模式是:炫酷的产品+出色的市场营销=大量利润。这个模式在苹果早期曾取得过一段时间的成功,但那也是吉米卡特当总统,比利卡特卖cerveza啤酒的年代了。

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

到了里根执掌白宫的时代,IBM和微软正处于蜜月期,两大巨头的姻缘造就了PC操作系统的windows。到了1995年,盖兹已经击垮众多竞争者,成为了该领域的老大哥。,盖兹和艾伦赢得PC软件大战的这段历史,华尔街投资者和沃伦巴菲特应该还记忆犹新吧,当时微软的高股价给他们带来了丰厚的利润。 

 乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

在微软成功同时,乔布斯也正经历事业上的剧变,出自技术至上的硅谷的他,却在注重外表的好莱坞逐渐成熟。他从乔治卢卡斯(星球大战导演)手中购得无人问津的动画制作组Pixar,并耐心地将其打造为新的“迪斯尼”。

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

PC的强项在于娱乐,而非生产;而乔布斯同样更倾向于将其打造作为娱乐载体,而非编程、打字的工具。这是他成功的第一步。

第二步,苹果公司发现自己成了一艘没有船长的航船,其忠实拥趸不断呼唤“回来吧,船长”,于是乔布斯王者归来。他果断放弃了失败的Performa系列,专注于打造炫酷的产品。

又过了六七个年头,Napster推出了第一个广为人知的在线音乐P2P共享服务,引发了一场在线音乐革命。但问题在于,Napster仅是个革命者,却无法提供好的商业运营模式。人们通过该服务下载上亿首歌,它却赚不到一分钱。若是它将该技术授权给音乐公司就好了。 

之后美国唱片工业协会(RIAA)和Napster对簿公堂,乔布斯发现了一个巨大的商机:既然音乐下载无法阻拦,何不主动进入该领域分一杯羹呢?顺便提一下,1995年我就第一个预言音乐下载将取代CD,要知道那时候网速还慢得出奇,而且网民数量还很少。

 

乔布斯的成功之处,在于他在大众下载音乐的渴求和音乐人继续赚钱的愿望之间找到了利益共同点。和平、爱和摇滚可以造就一首伟大的单曲,但却不能带来成功的商业模式。

 

现在,苹果出品的iPod和iTunes引领着音乐下载市场,人们已通过这些产品下载了超过1亿首单曲 。

 乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

向苹果致敬

苹果是新时代的索尼,引领媒体播放器和娱乐发展的步伐

 

Pixar是新时代的Disney

30年过后,乔布斯仍然是整个团队的王者和领导者。他是科技界的疯帽人吗?(何文伟)

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

以下为哈蒙英文博客原文:

Steve Jobs is the Mad Hatter of technology

 

Apple has been the poster child for 'wow factor' gadgets for the past 7 or 8 years now. Are you ready for another dose of hippie-inspired Love Bug meets Prius tofu-chugging moment from Cupertino, Cally, home to Apple Computers. Not

lost is the irony of Apple's street address, either, 1 Infinite Loop. Guess persistence pays off in time.

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

(apple co-founder Steve Wozniak with his Toyota Prius)

 

Apple was decried in the 1990s as the equivalent of a banjo-toting

savant of the PC war lost to Microsoft. Yes, the PCs and GUI were

pleasing but Gates and Allen's Microsoft ability to focus on the

business of the PC put Microsoft on top. Sure both ripped off Xerox

PARC's GUI but the victors always rewrite history.

 

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

We all know by now Apple kicked Jobs out of the job for being vocal

(which is basically being Jobs). Apple had mixed success and was largely

relegated to a footnote for what not to do in technology business. Its

formula was:

 

Cool products + great marketing = high prices = lots of profits. That

formula worked for a few years in the early Apple days when Jimmy Carter

was still President and brother Billy Carter touted his own brand of

cerveza.

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

By the time Ronald Reagan found the soft leather at the Oval Office IBM

and Microsoft were seriously dating. The heavy petting led to a Windows

being born on PCs and in 1995 the Big Brotherish hammer throw was all

Gates. Gates and Allen won the PC software war. Ask Wall Street or Warren Buffett.

 

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

(#2 world’s richest person Warren Buffett at ice cream shop Dairy Queen)

 

Brewing in the background was some sort of primordial universe bending

karma thing, fabricated from Silicon Valley but tempered in Botox raging

Hollywood. Steve Jobs picked up a castaway animation unit called Pixar

from George Lucas (Star Wars), and patiently turned it into the new

"Disney."

 

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

“A gadget phone, hmmmm, interesting you will create”

 

PCs fueling entertainment, not productivity. Steve Jobs' was more

aligned with the PC as vehicle for entertainment than the PC to compute

a formula or write a letter.

 

That's step one.

 

Step two, Apple Computers realized that it had a ship and no captain. Oh

captain my captain the faithful cried. Returning hero: Steve Jobs. He

ditched the Performa debacle (31 flavors of mediocrity) and focused on

"cool."

 

And yes it took another six or seven years and voila, Napster triggered

the online music revolution. Trouble was, Naptser was all revo and no

business model. It could trade 1 billion songs but not generate a penny

in revenue. Should have licensed the tech to the music companies.

 

While the RIAA and Napster went to blows, Jobs saw an opportunity. If

music downloads were unstoppable why not join the parade? By the way, in

1995 I did one of the first industry forecasts that showed music

downloads replacing CDs during the time when 9600 baud was the norm and

few people were online yet.

 

What Steve did was find common ground between the public's desire to

download music and musicville's desire to continue to make money from

music. Peace, love and rock and roll makes for a great song but not

business model.

 

Now in 2010 Apple's iPod and iTunes lead the music download arena. More

than 1 billion songs downloaded. Ipods popping up like Lady GaGa at

a paparazzi open bar.

乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

Hats off to Apple.

 

Apple is the new Sony, setting the pace for cool media devices and

entertainment.

 

Pixar is the new Disney.

 

And Steve Jobs is in the mad orchestra leader after 30 years of hacking

the universe. Or is that the Mad Hatter?

 乔布斯:科技界疯子 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Steve Jobs as the Mad Hatter

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