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史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

互联网风投与管理者,创业企业是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一

 
 
 

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我是美国风投创始人和管理合作伙伴,曾担任过Jupiter Media公司VP,Paul Kagan Associates机构分析师,我的创业企业Applied Semantics2003年被谷歌收购,是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一。现着重投资互联网领域,对中国互联网和网络新媒体有深刻研究。我写的《零重力1.0》和《零重力2.0》成为彭博社最畅销书籍,比尔盖茨、杨致远也读过我写的商业报告。在中国,我给网易科技独家供稿。hapn.cool try it!

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苹果微软谷歌,谁是最后赢家?  

2009-08-12 23:38:19|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

在三人组合的世界当中,出名的有Larry, Moe和Curly组合(三位均为喜剧演员),有三个火枪手,还有希尔顿,布莱尼和麦当娜这帮雷人女组合。

苹果微软谷歌,谁是最后赢家? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
 

不过未来的媒体之战将是苹果,谷歌和微软之间的战斗。
  三巨头之间将展开多层面竞争:搜索引擎,软件,硬件以及服务。
苹果微软谷歌,谁是最后赢家? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

苹果禁用谷歌Voice应用程序也仅仅是全球通讯与媒体争夺战的序幕而已。
这会是怎样的一场战争呢?看看这三家公司各自的成就将有助于我们了解哪些领域尚有风险,而哪一方又是现在的赢家。


我手上有一些数据,表明了各家公司各项服务当前的用户数量,其中包括了音乐,手机以及网络服务用户。该数据所显示的结果颇值得玩味:未来的皇家之战将在苹果和谷歌之间展开,它们将力争掌控各类数字服务用户。为何是苹果与谷歌之战呢?就平台而言,苹果当然独占鳌头。而谷歌在搜索引擎上则占尽优势:总是可以利用各种方式满足终端用户的需求,其他网站则难望其项背。


苹果微软谷歌,谁是最后赢家? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

微软则在操作系统上独自称霸,其在全球的市场份额,无论是苹果还是谷歌都难以在短期内赶超。不过,由于政府机关限制使用Windows系统,微软在新领域(如搜索,音乐等)的发展受到了阻碍。如此之外,Windows Mobile市场份虽然额尚属乐观,不过在苹果IPhone的声势面前,还是难免流于颓势的可能。


苹果IPod以及IPod硬件“ecosystem”是谷歌最大的威胁。这些硬件推动了苹果以及网络服务(包括ITunes, Safari, MobileMe等等)的发展。这就是为什么谷歌也竭尽全力发展自己的移动软件Android。报告称,Android系统手机已经售出150万台。虽然远不及IPhone的销量,但是也是相当可观了。然而,对于谷歌而言,最大的威胁是,以产品“酷炫”而言,苹果恐怕是全球唯一一家可以赶超谷歌的公司了。苹果的音乐,手机的发展演变难以模仿,看看Palm Pre还有Microsoft Zune就知道了。如此的酷炫非苹果莫属。


对于微软而言,最完美的世界莫过于世上万物均由Windows所掌控,而苹果和谷歌的发展则举步维艰。不过,当软件逐渐以服务为导向,越来越少成为固件,微软的优势将日益式微。有讽刺意味的是,谷歌的雇员大多来自曾在软件市场上被微软打得一败涂地的Netscape。不过如今,软件不复存在,取而代之的是网络服务,服务器群以及配置均匀的网络信息。一切的一切都有终端用户所掌控。


对于如上三家公司而言,还有其他的威胁,最大的威胁来自于全球拥有2亿用户的Facebook。不过,要击败三大巨头,Facebook尚需时日。


  差不多5年前,我说过,苹果就是新索尼,而Pixar就是新迪斯尼,而两者都是史蒂夫 乔布斯的杰作。如今,Pixar卖给了迪斯尼,苹果又是电子媒体(包括了音乐,电视,电影,应用程序以及其他服务)消费者眼中的大王。为何亚马逊启用自主品牌的电子书阅读器the kindle?因为苹果的IPod正在不断发展,可能很快就能成为电子阅读器的领军者—就如其在音乐领域一般。

苹果微软谷歌,谁是最后赢家? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
  那谁是赢家呢?我认为,苹果从事商业32年,其失误(有些失误甚至帮助早期微软的发展),其起伏(无论是产品还是CEO),都是让苹果显得尤为突出。其经验以及酷炫的新产品正是其源源不断吸引消费者的魔力所在(看看苹果最近发布的资产负债表就足以说明这一趋势)


而微软需要寻求自我发展,则需要开发面向用户的服务,并以此为基础收购更多服务供应商,比如Twitter,Facebook,而不是雅虎。


  谷歌则需要招徕苹果的人才,从而帮助其提供更佳的用户体验。看看Orkut,发展了这么些年,依然问题不断,服务器也不稳定。Google Base不敌Craigslist。Google Docs也不及Office。甚至Android也更像是技术解决方案,而不像是面向用户的服务。


  你觉得谁是赢家呢?那原因又何在?(刘可微/编译)

PS: 本文为哈蒙授权网易科技独家发布,转载请注明出处。

英文原文:


In the world of famous threesomes there's Larry, Moe and Curly; The Three Musketeers; Paris Hilton, Britney Spears and Madonna.

苹果微软谷歌,谁是最后赢家? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

But the battle for media will be fought by these three: Apple, Google and Microsoft.

All three companies are engaged in multiple battlefront wars with each other: search, software, hardware, services.

苹果微软谷歌,谁是最后赢家? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客


Apple's banning of the Google Voice app from the iTunes store is just the opening shot in a lengthy decade battle ahead for control of the world's communication and media flow.

What kind of battle will it be? Understanding where each company is at will help understand what's at stake and who is winning so far.

I ran some numbers on what each of the company has in terms of users for its various offerings, from music to phones to Web, and it showed some interesting results: the battle royale that I see coming is between Apple and Google over which controls the user across multiple digital avenues. Why Apple and Google? Apple has the lead if we look at each platform. Google has the edge in search, a huge onramp to multiple end user services that it doesn't yet provide as it steers users to other sites.


Microsoft clearly dominates in operating systems with a global share that Apple and Google don't seem likely to touch anytime soon. However, given the government restrictions on Windows it clearly has hampered its growth into new markets such as search, music, and other new areas. That said, Windows Mobile had impressive numbers but looks like it's losing ground as Apple's iPhone gains.

Apple's hardware "ecosystem" of iPods, iPhones is the biggest threat to Google. These devices feed Apple growth and network services (iTunes, Safari, MobileMe, etc.). This is the main reason Google is trying to get a foothold with its own mobile software effort, Android. Reports say Android-powered phones have sold 1.5 million units. Not big in the iPhone sales gauge. But somewhat notable. The biggest threat to Google, however, is that Apple is probably the only company in the world perceived as "cooler" than Google. Apple's game changing moves in music and phones are not easy to duplicate. Just ask Palm Pre or Microsoft Zune. Cool is elusive.

In a perfect world for Microsoft it would be allowed to bundle anything into Windows and both Apple and Google would have a much more difficult job of gaining market share. However, as software becomes more "service" than a installed item, this advantage would likely have faded over time anyway. It's ironic that much of Google's employees came from Netscape, which Microsoft soundly defeated in the software market. This time around, though, there is no software, it's all Web services, server farms, networked information distributed. Controlled by the end user.

There are other threats to the above three, the biggest is facebook with over 200 million global users. But it remains a long shot to unseat any of the above for multiple reasons.

About 5 years ago I said Apple was the new Sony and Pixar was the new Disney (both ran by Steve Jobs). Today Pixar is owned by Disney and Apple is the undisputed king of consumer electronic media from music, TV, movies, apps and more it delivers. Why else did Amazon launch its own ebook reader, the kindle? Because Apple's iPods in a few moves could become the leader in ereaders overnight -- same as music.

苹果微软谷歌,谁是最后赢家? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Who wins the battle above? I think Apple currently has the edge with its 32 years of being in business, making mistakes (some big like helping Microsoft early on), and its ups and downs with products and CEOs. Experience and making cool new products keeps consumers buying (look at Apple's latest balance sheet).

Microsoft will have to accelerate its growth into consumer-facing services and acquire many new services to make this happen. Not Yahoo but Twitter, Facebook.

Google will have to hire people from Apple to help it figure out better consumer experiences. Look at Orkut, still has problems and server hiccups all these years later. Google Base didn't beat Craigslist. Google Docs isn't dethroning Office. Even Android sounds more like a tech solution than a consumer one.

Who do you think wins? why?

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