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史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

互联网风投与管理者,创业企业是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一

 
 
 

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我是美国风投创始人和管理合作伙伴,曾担任过Jupiter Media公司VP,Paul Kagan Associates机构分析师,我的创业企业Applied Semantics2003年被谷歌收购,是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一。现着重投资互联网领域,对中国互联网和网络新媒体有深刻研究。我写的《零重力1.0》和《零重力2.0》成为彭博社最畅销书籍,比尔盖茨、杨致远也读过我写的商业报告。在中国,我给网易科技独家供稿。hapn.cool try it!

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独家预测:中国将有70%人上网  

2009-07-22 00:05:02|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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独家预测:中国网络与移动电话用户未来十年的走势2018年,70%的人口将会使用网络,90%的人口将会使用移动电话

 

  在未来十年,中国将会有多少网民呢?16年来,我既预测了网络与电信这两大工业的走向,也对其进行了深入了解,更见证了它们的成长壮大。这篇文章便是我对中国网络与移动电话工业未来走势的预测。愚见如下:

 

  我预测,到2018年,中国网民将会占全国人口的70%。移动电话用户则更多,接近90%。这些数据让人难以相信,中国的网络与电信工业的发展竟然仅有十年而已。

 

我先来说说90年代我第一次访华时中国网络的情况:

 

  飞机在香港机场着陆。终于到了中国,我心里万分激动。那时正值1997年,全亚洲最大的网络贸易展览会在中国举行,而我是展览会的发言人。当时,中国网民还不到一百万。一个十亿人口的大国只有不到一百万的用户,如此的规模也能叫做工业吗?

 

  尽管如此,我还是对中国有特殊的偏好,童年时学习截拳道(李小龙所创立的一种武术)的情景也历历在目。李小龙以前也住在香港,因此,除了网络,这个繁华城市还有其他方面让我好奇。

独家预测:中国将有70人上网 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

我乘坐地铁,从机场来到香港市区。尽管中英文混杂比比皆是,但是没人谈论到网络;没人使用网络;没人有电子邮箱;没人上网聊天;QQ也不外乎就是两个字母而已。

独家预测:中国将有70人上网 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

  不过,我坚信中国正处于通信大革命的前沿阵地,而且,说来也挺讽刺的,由于我在酒店里使用了拨号上网,我居然就成为了中国第一批网民中的一员。

独家预测:中国将有70人上网 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

  大约有两万人簇拥在演讲大厅。我的主旨演讲预测了网络的崛起,网络经济、在线业务的发展,以及整个工业的壮大。我们都为之振奋,我也切实感受到了大厅所蕴藏的潜力,创意在发展,希望与梦想也将会来到中国,发展网络事业。

 

  如今,仅仅10年之后,中国就拥有了世界上最多的网民,达3亿人口之多。

 

  与此同时,中国的移动电话用户也接近5.6亿人口。

 

  我以前就认为,“移动网络”将会拥有更大的市场,如今,事实也如我所料。我也认为,怎样上网已经不再重要,因为无论是电脑上网还是手机上网,其区别已经微乎其微。

 

  但是,尽管中国网民数量涨势迅猛,却只占全国人口的20%。移动电话的用户则多一些,达到了人口半数。这两者都会在未来十年当中迅速增长。

 

  这就说明,我们终于迎来了在中国创建网络、电信业务的天赐良机。我们要做的,不是重复以往的常规业务,而是要着眼于新的业务,从而服务于广大的既定用户。

独家预测:中国将有70人上网 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

  未来的10年,是一个可以创造出数千万亿价值的黄金时期,这个价值将远远超越中国历史上任何工业的价值。这也是一个来中国做企业家的黄金时期。这就是我对中国网络与移动电话用户人数走势的预测2018年,70%的人口将使用网络,90%的人口将使用移动电话。(史蒂夫·哈蒙/文 刘可微/译)

 

本文为哈蒙授权网易科技博客独家稿件,转载请注明出处。

 

附英文原文:

Exclusive Forecast: Web & Mobile Usage Growth In China Next 10 Years -
7 of 10 people will use the Web and 9 in 10 will use mobile phones by the year 2018

How many Internet users will there be in China in the next 10 years? For over 16 years I have forecast and been involved in the Internet and mobile industries, looking at growth. I have put together an exclusive forecast for you on China's Internet and mobile growth. Here it is:

I forecast about 70% of all Chinese will use the Web by the year 2018. In mobile the percentage is even higher, close to 90%. It's hard to believe the Internet and mobile industries are barely 10 years old in China. Let me share with you my first visit in the 1990s and where the Internet was then:

My plane touched down at Hong Kong airport and I was excited to finally be in China. It was 1997 and I was in China to speak at the largest trade show for the Internet industry in all of Asia. At the time, there was under 1 million Internet users in China. How could this be an industry? Under 1 million users in a country of 1 billion?


Still, I was fond of China and remembered my childhood studying Jeet Kune Do (the martial arts developed by Bruce Lee). Lee had lived in Hong Kong so I was curious also on another level to see the bustling city.

独家预测:中国将有70人上网 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

I took the subway from the airport into Hong Kong and saw the mix of Chinese and English wordings. Nobody was talking about the Internet. Everyday people here weren’t using it. Few had email. Nobody chatted. QQ was just two letters.

独家预测:中国将有70人上网 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客


But I believed China was at the forefront of a massive revolution in communications and, ironically, as I signed onto the Web using a dial up connection from my hotel, I became one of the earliest Internet users in China.

独家预测:中国将有70人上网 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客


About 20,000 people filled the huge keynote hall.  My keynote at the trade show predicted a rise in the Internet in China, and growth in ecommerce, businesses online, and the growth of the industry. As we exited I felt the potential in the room, the ideas growing, hopes and dreams going back out into China to build this Web.


Today, just over 10 years later, China has the most Internet users of any country, 300 million.


And mobile has about 560 million users in China.


My belief was that the “mobile Web” would be bigger and it is. I also think that it doesn’t matter how a person connects to the Internet as the lines of platform like PC and mobile device blur.

Yet for all the phenomenal growth in Web users in China, still less than 20% of the population use the Web. More people use mobile, about half of all Chinese. Both will grow dramatically in the next decade.


What this tells me is we are finally at the point of massive opportunity to build both Web and mobile businesses in China. Not businesses that have been built before but brand new businesses that serve this large installed base of users.

独家预测:中国将有70人上网 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

It’s the next 10 years that provide an opportunity to create hundreds of billions value that will dwarf the value of anything yet seen in the Middle Kingdom. This is a good time to be an entrepreneur in China. Here is my forecast for Web and mobile user growth in China -- 7 of 10 will use the Web and 9 in 10 will be on mobile by the year 2018.

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