注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

互联网风投与管理者,创业企业是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

我是美国风投创始人和管理合作伙伴,曾担任过Jupiter Media公司VP,Paul Kagan Associates机构分析师,我的创业企业Applied Semantics2003年被谷歌收购,是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一。现着重投资互联网领域,对中国互联网和网络新媒体有深刻研究。我写的《零重力1.0》和《零重力2.0》成为彭博社最畅销书籍,比尔盖茨、杨致远也读过我写的商业报告。在中国,我给网易科技独家供稿。hapn.cool try it!

文章分类
网易考拉推荐

美国亿万富翁夏令营的几桩预测  

2009-07-13 23:50:53|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

亿万富翁的夏令营本周在爱达荷州中部正是开营。对于那些“地理盲”,爱达荷州在旧金山正东方向。当比尔盖茨、谷歌CEO艾瑞克 施密特,戴尔CEO迈克尔·戴尔,还有其他林林总总的企业巨头等十几位亿万富翁齐聚爱达荷野外,这将给意味着什么呢?这着看上去古怪的事情其实并不稀奇。其实,这是本年度传媒与技术大亨们的聚会,他们将在爱达荷的太阳谷参会一周,并试图去理解每一位与会者的一言一行。

 

美国亿万富翁夏令营的几桩预测 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

太阳谷是一个坐落于爱达荷州的小镇。在过去的27年当中,投行Allen & Co.都会邀请传媒以及科技行业的CEO与创始人在此齐聚一堂,相互交流,以期促成交易。事态发展往往也遂人意。

 

今年的活动则如同是在玩德克萨斯扑克游戏。一张张如扑克牌般僵硬的脸围在桌子周围,鲜见伸手,更不见桌上的筹码。往年,在这场一年一度的盛会当中,公司并购屡见不鲜,各种揣测,各种言论更是层出不穷。而今年,就我看来,似乎大家都持观望态度,都等待着第一个吃螃蟹的人。

美国亿万富翁夏令营的几桩预测 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

Facebook的创始人马克 扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerburg)参加了此次会议。Twitter的创始人之一,正在寻找收购其公司买家(当然不是正式交易)的伊万 威廉姆斯(Evan Williams)也在场。AOL新任老总蒂姆 阿姆斯特朗(Tim Armstrong,前Google总裁)也不例外。索尼CEO霍华德 斯金格(Howard Stringer)开门见山,称不愿意收购Twitter公司。他表示,“一个难以盈利的公司?不是我想合作的公司。”

. 美国亿万富翁夏令营的几桩预测 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

我认为,从宏观来讲,美国的金融市场还不足以帮助新兴企业成长,并最终成功。太阳谷的此次会议就可以反映出促成并购的资债状况。由于过度管制,美国的新股市场受挫。具有讽刺意味是,在仅有的在美国上市的几家公司当中,竟然有一些是中国公司。

 

在债券方面,长年以来,私募股过分开发债券市场,购买了诸多本无权利购买的资产,包括零售业和制造业。由于住房,信贷以及其他债券持续走低,债券市场也不再有能力为太阳谷会议所期待那些大型并购提供资金支持。

 

相反,我预计本次太阳谷会议将会宣布如下结果:

 

谷歌收购Facebook这桩生意在从前完全不可能,尽管以我长期战略眼光来看,FacebookYouTube更有价值。有了FacebookGoogle将会得到2亿用户的实时意见+用户每个月上传的几十亿张照片+记满个人信息的文件+社区网络巨头。我的预测是:Google可能在12各月内以150亿美元现金和股票收购Facebook。让我们拭目以待。

 

微软收购Twitter这桩交易也曾难以达成。(现在也尚无结果。我的预测是:微软有可能在半年之内以75亿美元收购Twitter。其原因在于,尽管Twitter难以盈利,却拥有微软亟需的迥然于Google的用户群。)Twitter是当今拇指一族所崇尚的新型人际平台与社区。

 

AOL不再受控于时代华纳。在一场收购变故之后,AOL一直在时代华纳的旗下度过了惨淡的10年,现在AOL试图重振旗鼓。凑巧的是,1996年我曾经说过,AOL在成熟之后想要成为Yahoo这样的巨头。AOL终究还是以网络为基础,并且依然在寻找自我成长的空间。诚然,电缆与电视业务可以提供新的机遇,但是一旦到了瓶颈,AOL又将何去何从?莫非这就是它的终点?事实上,即时信息服务AIM及其旗下的advertising.comAOL的核心法宝。AIM是最大网络实时对话服务供应商。

 

还记得电影里阿甘打开一盒巧克力,说他永远不知道这里面会有什么。而如今,太阳谷最缺乏的成分不仅仅是行动,还有通信业行家。

 

尽管关于媒体的讨论不断,对于大部分媒体以及技术巨头来说,真正值得关注的平台应当是通信。通信业的受众比电脑,电视,纸媒,广播都大。它俨然就是媒体的又一个圣杯。随便问问一个10岁的儿童喜欢做什么:是看电视,看书,听广播还是玩Nintendo DS 或者PSP?现在,越来越多的儿童也开始玩IPhone的游戏了。他们生日想要什么礼物呢?要么一台iPhone 或者 iPod Touch, 要么一台 Nintendo DSi

美国亿万富翁夏令营的几桩预测 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

 

今年,媒体圈子里真正的故事其实是:苹果公司比任何一家参加太阳谷会议的公司都更有远见。史蒂夫 乔布斯(Steve Jobs)甚至都没有参会。棉花糖,有人要吗?(刘可微/编译)

 

注:本文为哈蒙授权网易科技独家翻译发表,转载请注明出处。

 

附英文原文:

Summer Camp for billionaires happened this week in the middle of Idaho. For the ‘geographically challenged’, Idaho is somewhere due east from San Francisco. But what happens when you get over a dozen billionaires such as Bill Gates, Google’s Eric Schmidt, DELL’s Michael Dell and others in the Idaho wilds? The odd thing is not much it seems. That’s what happened this year at an exclusive retreat for the media moguls and tech titans who spent a week in Sun Valley, Idaho, trying to figure out just what everyone else in the room was doing.

美国亿万富翁夏令营的几桩预测 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
Sun Valley is a town in Idaho where every year for the past 27 years the investment bank Allen & Company has invited media and technology CEOs and founders to get together to socialize and network with each other. The idea is this can lead to deals. Sometimes it does.


Facebook founder Mark Zuckerburg was there. As was Twitter co-founder Evan Williams who may have been looking for a buyer for the company (unofficially of course). New AOL honcho Tim Armstrong (formerly of Google) popped up. Sony CEO Howard Stringer put things in perspective when he said Twitter was a company he didn’t want to acquire. A company with little or no revenue? “not a club I want to join.”

美国亿万富翁夏令营的几桩预测 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
From my perspective the larger observation is that the U.S. financial market isn’t where it needs to be in helping new companies grow and be successful. Events like Sun Valley are the epitome of the availability of capital and debt to accommodate mergers and acquisitions. The market for initial public offerings in the U.S. has been hampered by over-regulation. Ironically, some of the only companies to go public in the U.S. this year have been from China.

 

On the debt side, private equity overtapped the debt markets for several years to acquire assets they had no right buying, from retail to manufacturing. Combined with housing, mortgage and other debt weakness, the debt markets are not as able as they should be to finance the kind of mega-merger that a conference like Sun Valley should announce.

In lieu of that, here’s the announcements I would have liked to have seen come out of Sun Valley this year:

Google buys Facebook. There was no Google-Facebook deal. Although Facebook is much more valuable than YouTube to Google in my strategic long-term observation. With Facebook, Google gets the real-time user opinion of over 200 million users + billions of user photos uploaded monthly + profiles full of personal data + a social network winner.  My prediction: Google could make an offer for Facebook for $15 billion cash and stock within 12 months. We’ll see.

Microsoft buys Twitter. There was no Microsoft-Twitter deal (not yet anyway. My bet is Microsoft could acquire Twitter within 6 months for about $750 million. Why? Twitter has no revenue but does have a user base that Microsoft needs to differentiate its search from Google). Twitter is the new PR platform and usenet groups for today’s thumb-happy crowd (mobile users).

Time Warner spins out AOL. AOL is trying to rejigger after a disastrous 10 years under Time Warner in a failed merger. Coincidentally, in 1996 I said AOL wanted to be Yahoo when AOL  grew up. Well, AOL is finally web-based but still looking for a grown-up self. The cable companies and telcos are the new on-ramps, where does that leave AOL? Destination? AOL’s instant messenger service AIM is the jewel, along with Advertising.com. AIM is the largest “real-time Web” conversation.

Remember in the movie when Forrest Gump opened a box of chocolates and said he never knew what he was gonna get inside. Well, one of the biggest missing ingredients at Sun Valley this year was not only action but mobile industry mavens.

For all the talk about media, the real platform that most media and tech titans ought to be focused on is mobile. Mobile is bigger than PC, TV, print, broadcast. Mobile is the new Holy Grail of media. Ask any 10-year old what they’d rather do: watch TV, read a book, listen to radio or play their Nintendo DS or PSP. Increasingly, another game option is iPhone. What do they want for birthday? an iPhone or iPod Touch, or Nintendo DSi.

美国亿万富翁夏令营的几桩预测 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

The real story about media this year is that Apple looks like more of the future than anyone talked about at Sun Valley. And Steve Jobs wasn’t even there. Roasted marshmallows anyone?

  评论这张
 
阅读(20042)| 评论(38)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017