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史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

互联网风投与管理者,创业企业是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一

 
 
 

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我是美国风投创始人和管理合作伙伴,曾担任过Jupiter Media公司VP,Paul Kagan Associates机构分析师,我的创业企业Applied Semantics2003年被谷歌收购,是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一。现着重投资互联网领域,对中国互联网和网络新媒体有深刻研究。我写的《零重力1.0》和《零重力2.0》成为彭博社最畅销书籍,比尔盖茨、杨致远也读过我写的商业报告。在中国,我给网易科技独家供稿。hapn.cool try it!

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如何击败微软谷歌?  

2009-06-24 23:54:53|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

微软公司并没有错,我们每天都在用这家公司的产品。这些产品当中有一部分非常出色,极大方便了人们的生活,但也有部分产品用起来感觉不怎么样。
   

 下一个问题。
    

这家在银行有500亿美元存款的公司能够被击败吗?硅谷会给你否定的答案。想想Netscape、苹果公司、VisiCalc以及CPM,这些公司规模庞大,难以被击败。同样,谷歌也是这样一种公司。也许,只有为公司提供财务软件的厂商Intuit曾真正击败过微软。
    如何击败微软谷歌? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

尽管微软向市场上投入了大量资本,但看起来微软的资金运营还是非常顺利。也许,早在上世纪90年代中期,微软试图以30亿美元的价格收购Intuit公司的时候,微软就已经知道他们的资金运营会呈现非常良好的状况。如今,INTU的市场资本额约在83亿美元。据我所知,当时微软未能成功收购Intuit,是因为受到了反垄断法律的约束。从1994年开始 ,INTU价值上涨了6倍,而微软的价值上涨了8倍。当然,微软产品的覆盖规模远比Intuit要大。
   

 Intuit是如何击败微软的?
   

通过恰当的时机选择以及专业的行业技术,Intuit定义了一个新市场,并且迅速垄断了该市场。这一市场与微软先前所占领的市场是有差别的。
   

在上世纪90年代,软件都在磁盘上,而CD-ROM所代表的是最先进的发展水平。当时,微软正极力推动发布Windows 95,但是该公司的Windows 3.1系统却还总是不尽如人意。但是,当时Intuit(财务软件)已经能够通过自己设计的软件,让商家进行在线支付。小型企业已经能够通过Intuit的软件把账目进行系统的分类。Intuit软件的操作系统同资金平衡表、税款以及工资支付表并没有共同之处。
   

 在1995年,没有人认为互联网业务存在巨大的商业前景。在线服务仍然呈关闭状态,企业都是用自己的软件,并且这些软件都没有被推广。此外,当时全球互联网的在线人数 只有不到1500万人,并且大都是研究人员以及电脑发烧友。
   

在微软看来,Intuit业务的不断增长对其吸引力非常大,因而微软作出决定,欲收购Intuit公司。但最终微软的梦想落空,而Intuit得以继续蓬勃发展。目前,Intuit呈现出这样一种姿态:要把公司规模变大、业务能力变强,在财务软件领域寻求更加多样化的发展。
   

在如今这个时候来看,我们能否肯定Intuit是否从零开始,成功击败了微软?答案是肯定的。
   

 如何击败微软谷歌? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

以下是具体做法:
   

如今,要想在互联网领域有所发展,必须在微软控制能力范围之外的地方进行着手,比如像TCP/IP等。
   

 要知道,目前每日全球有10亿互联网用户在线,这比使用微软旗舰产品Windows或者Office的用户还多。
   

 微软的Internet Explorer 3在刚问世的时候,Netscape公司的Navigator浏览器占有97%的市场份额,但在微软公司消耗战略的打压下,Navigator就慢慢从市场上销声匿迹了。当时,eBay、雅虎和亚马逊最终也赢得了这场战争,不再在Netscape网站购买广告,而谷歌向用户提供简单搜索业务,在搜索引擎市场的争夺战中获得了胜利 。
   

但是,微软的下一场攻势才是最激烈的:这次争夺的焦点并不是Windows操作系统,而是当用户打开电脑之后,首先进入视线的窗口(window)。当电脑屏幕上的一个窗口即可解决所有要处理的事情时,所有微软的产品都被称作Windows。但是在互联网世界里,电脑屏幕会引领消费者去任何一个地方获得任何一种服务。
   

微软的下一款产品是什么?实际上是一个窗口,一个引领消费者去购买微软产品的窗口。如果微软要想获得更好发展,该公司一定会这么做。同样,AOL、雅虎、eBay、谷歌以及亚马逊要想更好发展,也必须这么做,即使这些公司目前并没有意识到这一点。
   

此外,有线电视公司、电视网络公司、手机厂商、汽车导航公司、卫星服务公司都会参与到与上述公司的竞争行为当中。
   

 这个窗口是一种远程控制端,能够在未来控制所有的信息流动、所有商业活动、所有通讯、所有电视节目、广播频道、新闻报道以及所有的人。
    一个新窗口:

如何击败微软谷歌? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
    谷歌目前正试图成为这扇窗户。任何公司或者个人,如果在自己的网站上向谷歌提供了免费搜索条,那么实际上这些公司或者个人就免费把自己的商业交易交给了谷歌。下次 ,用谷歌的时候,好好想想这点。
    要想破坏这一窗口,就必须这么做。
    赢得这场竞争的关键是要让消费者拥有最大权力。不管消费者点击了什么内容,他们的最终目的才是最重要的。
    第一回合是关于浏览器。Internet Explorer胜出。
    第一回合是关于搜索条。这一回合谷歌胜出。
    第三回合是可变的X因素,这条因素可以破坏上两个回合所带来的影响。这才是真正的机会所在。能够改变整体状况的因素。
    如何击败微软谷歌? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

在互联网世界里,所有公司都能够被击败,一旦某个伟大的想法被巧妙实现,没有公司敢肯定说不会受此影响。也许,能够击败微软(谷歌、雅虎、百度等等)的是个正在都柏林、伦敦、上海或者是里约热内卢读书的年轻人。某天这位年轻人突然发现了能够改变商业领域运行规则的新准则,他就将是改变微软命运的那个人。(普莱)

注:转载请注明网易科技博客为出处

附英文原文:

There's nothing wrong with Microsoft. We use its products daily. Some
are great, some are not.

Next question.

Can the company with $50 billion in the bank be beat?

Silicon Valley would say no. Think Netscape. Think Apple. Think VisiCalc. Think CPM. All took on Moby Dick and felt the whale's wrath.

Google is next to try the harpoon. Best of luck.

The only firm to ever truly beat Microsoft has been Intuit, the maker of bill payment and tax software.

如何击败微软谷歌? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Despite tons of capital spent on marketing, Microsoft's Money is an also-ran that never was. Microsoft probably knew as much when it wanted to acquire Intuit in the mid-1990s for $3 billion. INTU market cap is now about $8.3 billion. As I recall, anti-trust stopped Microsoft acquiring Intuit. Since 1994 INTU is up 600% and MSFT is up 800%. Of course, MSFT grew off a larger base.

How did Intuit beat Microsoft?

Timing and expertise. Intuit defined a new market, dominated it, on a different platform than Microsoft was originally on.

In the mid 1990s software was all on disk. CD-ROMs were state of the art.

Microsoft was battling trying to get Windows 95 out, was still caught in Windows 3.1 hell.

Intuit (accounting software) was already live and kicking, online payments through its own software. Small businesses used the software for bookkeeping. An
operating system had nothing in common with a balance sheet, taxes and paychecks.

The internet didn't exist as a viable business avenue for anyone in 1995. Online services were still closed, used their own software and
were small anyway. Less than 15 million people were online in the entire WORLD, and they were researchers and uber-geeks.

Intuit looked like a jewel of growth to Microsoft so it made the bid to acquire. Deal fell apart and Intuit still won, look at its market today: larger, stronger and more diverse into accounting and more taxes.

In the current era, the network as software one we're all in, could Intuit beat Microsoft? From a zero start?

Yes.

如何击败微软谷歌? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客


Here's how:

The network era depends on protocols outside of Microsoft's control, TCP/IP, etc.

1 billion people are online today, more than use Microsoft's flagship product Windows or Office.

Microsoft's war is one of attrition, outspending over time any rival. By the time Internet Explorer 3 came out, pioneering rival Netscape Navigator, which once had 97% marketshare, was fading. The value of the browser shifted to what's inside the browser frame, not the menus.

eBay, Yahoo and Amazon won that war (so far), each coat-tailing off buying ads on Netscape.com when it basically was the web. Google won by making search simpler.

Microsoft's next battle is its biggest yet: it's not "Windows" but for the first "window" you see when you turn on or use a computing device. All along Microsoft's product has been called 'Windows' when one window is all that matters: your initial screen. In a web world that screen leads everywhere to every service.

Microsoft's next product? window. Singular. That's if it wants to win the new war. It's the war AOL, Yahoo, eBay, Google and Amazon are all going to fight against each other even if they don't know it yet.

It's the fight that the cable companies, TV networks, cell phone makers, car navigation companies, satellite providers are all going to fight against the above companies.

It's why there may not be a DirecTV (News Corp.) in 20 years. The window is distribution for all content. Beyond broadband everything is a click away and instant.

For the window. That window is the remote control to all information flow in the future, all ecommerce, all communications, all TV shows, radio programs, newspaper stories, people.

A new window:

如何击败微软谷歌? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
Google is trying to be that window and any company or person that gives Google a free search box on its website is giving away its own business to Google for free. Think about that next time you use Google.

The battle for the one window is here.

The wild card in the battle is consumers hold the power. Whatever you click on or click through to get what you want online matters.

Round one was the browser. Internet Explorer won.

Round two is the search box which Google won.

Round three is the variable X that disrupts everything about items one and two above. That's the real opportunity. Same way The Clash changed music.

如何击败微软谷歌? - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
In a networked world any company can be beat and no company is safe from great ideas smartly implemented. The Achilles' Heel (the threat) for Microsoft (and Google, Yahoo, Baidu, etc.) is a teenager in Dublin, London, Shanghai or Rio de Janeiro cranking out some radical new code that changes the rules of business by ignoring them.

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