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史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

互联网风投与管理者,创业企业是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一

 
 
 

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我是美国风投创始人和管理合作伙伴,曾担任过Jupiter Media公司VP,Paul Kagan Associates机构分析师,我的创业企业Applied Semantics2003年被谷歌收购,是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一。现着重投资互联网领域,对中国互联网和网络新媒体有深刻研究。我写的《零重力1.0》和《零重力2.0》成为彭博社最畅销书籍,比尔盖茨、杨致远也读过我写的商业报告。在中国,我给网易科技独家供稿。hapn.cool try it!

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苹果成功的曲折路  

2009-06-10 22:35:04|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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各种批评和谣言一直围绕着Palm公司和其产品Pre。但是,事实真相又是什么样呢?当苹果公司推出其Apple II和Mac系列产品后,我就对其情有独钟,开始成为苹果公司产品的忠实用户。这种对苹果手机的钟爱可以追溯到我的大学时代。那时候我的家庭并不富裕,我的大学费用是通过变卖我的个人电脑来筹集的。然而苹果手机的华丽外形和高度智能化却至始至终吸引着我。

苹果成功的曲折路 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

事实上,我那时候拒绝学习MS-DOS系统,一心一意扑在Mac系统上。但是,在商业圈内,微软还是获得了最终的胜利。因为商业圈内的所有应用软件都只能在MS-DOS系统下工作。和苹果不同,MS-DOS是一个工作平台。同时加之第三方软件开发商的推动作用,MS-DOS系统成为价值高达数十亿美元全球霸王。在1995年,微软推出了Windows 95操作系统,就是从这时开始苹果的各种优势都已不复存在。由于第三方应用软件的设计和开发也建立在Windows 95系统上,这样就推动微软走在行业的前列。从这时开始,我不再是苹果的忠实拥护者,而微软成为我的最爱,因为Windows PC能够支持更多价廉的应用软件。

苹果成功的曲折路 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客


此时,苹果公司像泄气的百事可乐一样开始走下坡路。我不知道你是否读过比尔·盖茨的《未来之路》,这本书中他谈及到创建公司的“有效循环”理念,这就是各种积极因素都要集中到一项产品身上。我想在苹果公司的这些员工可能2000年初期也都读过这本书。因为就像灰姑娘一夜之间变成美丽的天使一样,iPod横空出世。不知为什么,苹果再一次让世界震惊。

这可能跟史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)回归的有关。他之前一直像一个和尚一样在行政领域徘徊。他回归后创办了崭新的新苹果又一次勃发。

苹果成功的曲折路 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

iPod同样也为苹果提供一个致胜武器,那就是iTunes平台。而这种平台无处不在。由于有越来越多的人想拥用一部集智能、触屏、音乐播放和网上体验于一身的小型手机,所以从iPod过渡到 iPhone用时很短。


手机这个词并不是一种比喻。它在拉丁语中被称为“tabula rasa”,或者“clean slate”。但是对手机更重要东西和电脑完全不同。手机使用一种全新的应用软件,而且手机的设计要符合简单方便的要求。手机体验其实就是一种连续电码,就像摩尔斯电码一样通过脉冲进行交流,用以听,看、发送短信,玩游戏和共享服务。


今天,iPhone已经成为全世界最大的手机软件平台,拥有超过10亿应用软件可供下载。其中,大概有5万种应用软件可以通过iPhone平台使用。同时竞争对手遥遥落后:黑莓的完全不具备应用软件信息和下载功能。Palm公司的新产品Pre可用应用软件也寥寥无几。据报道称在Pre产品发布的第一天,其应用软件被下载15万次。

苹果成功的曲折路 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

同时,谷歌也正逐步进入手机硬件市场,通过推出其Android移动软件来占据少数的手机制造商。
但是,因为第三方的应用软件开发商拥用他们所需要的最大的应用平台,因此真正的战斗属于他们。其它竞争对手也逐渐显现,包括:谷歌、Facebook、Twitter。但是面对竞争,他们都遥遥落后。而Palm Pre竞争前景会更加容易,他们能够通过网络规划进一步加强其应用软件库。但这就像,在森林里,一棵树倒下了,没有人会注意到他一样。

这场战斗将会以开发商挑起开始,以某个开发商的胜利结束。他们将会发展或打破电脑处理平台的桎梏。因为应用软件的开发商只有通过生产软件平台,然后开发相应的应用软件才能最终获胜。因此,对于Apple来说,他们前途一片光明。(普莱/编译)

注:本文为哈蒙网易科技博客独家供稿,转载请注明出处:网易科技博客

附英文原文:

A lot of hype around Palm and Pre mobile phone this week. Hmmmm, what’s the reality check? I was one of the earliest Apple evangelists when the company came out with the Apple II and the Mac. Back in the day I sold personal computers to help pay my way through college and based on the graphic interface and more “human” approach to interacting with a machine I became an Apple fan.

苹果成功的曲折路 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

In my first job after college, in fact, I dragged my Mac to work and plugged it in, refusing to learn MS-DOS. But eventually in the business world Microsoft won. Applications for business were based on MS-DOS. Not Apple. MS-DOS was a platform. Third-party software developers made it into a global empire valued at hundreds of billions of $.
By the time 1995 rolled around and Microsoft came out with Windows 95 the eye candy advantage that Apple had was gone. Third party apps built on it and propelled Microsoft to the fore. I stopped being an Apple fan and started liking Windows and the plethora of apps available for a fraction of the price for a Windows PC.

苹果成功的曲折路 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Apple withered and fizzled like an open can of Pepsi.
I don’t know if you read Bill Gate’s book ‘The Road Ahead’ (way back in 1990s) but he talked about “virtuous cycles” that build companies. Positive swirls around a product. I guess the hippies in Cupertino at Apple must have read it since by the early 2000s the iPod popped out like Angelie Jolie emerging from Phyllis Diller. Somehow the gene pool that gave the world the Performa now had it right, again.

Maybe it was the return of Steve Jobs after his monk-like wanderings into NEXTville, which ended with Apple buying NeXT, his new PC company.

苹果成功的曲折路 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
iPod gave Apple back a platform weapon, iTunes. Distribution. Ubiquity. The step from iPod to iPhone was short as who wanted to own a clamshell cell phone when a touch screen music and web player was available?
Mobile is not a desktop metaphor. It is what’s known in Latin as “tabula rasa,” or clean slate. What’s important on mobile isn’t the same as a desktop PC. Mobile is based on new apps, social and mobile by design (not afterthought). The mobile experience is staccato, Morse code-like bursts of communication. Texting. Gaming. Sharing. Listening. Watching. (And soon, Buying).
Today, iPhone is the world’s largest mobile computing platform with over 1 billion app downloads. Some 50,000 apps are reportedly available on the iPhone platform. Rivals are way behind: Information on Blackberry apps and its downloads are not readily available. Palm’s new Pre has about a dozen apps available and news reported about 150,000 downloads its first day (phone came out June 8, 2009).

苹果成功的曲折路 - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Google is also getting into the mobile hardware effort by pushing out its Android mobile software to over a dozen handset makers.
The real battle is in third-party apps and who has the biggest ecosystem for developers to build on. Other contenders will emerge: Google, Facebook, Twitter. But they are all hopelessly late to the battle. Palm Pre may make it easier by using Web programming to hasten dev for its app store, but if a tree falls in the forest and no termite sees it…
The war will be fought by developers and won by developers — they are the ones that will make or break the computing platforms (Web, mobile, desktop). Whoever makes more money off of any platform will create the virtuous circle that wins. So far it’s Apple. By a 1 billion download margin.

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