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史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

互联网风投与管理者,创业企业是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一

 
 
 

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关于我

我是美国风投创始人和管理合作伙伴,曾担任过Jupiter Media公司VP,Paul Kagan Associates机构分析师,我的创业企业Applied Semantics2003年被谷歌收购,是谷歌Adsense概念创造者之一。现着重投资互联网领域,对中国互联网和网络新媒体有深刻研究。我写的《零重力1.0》和《零重力2.0》成为彭博社最畅销书籍,比尔盖茨、杨致远也读过我写的商业报告。在中国,我给网易科技独家供稿。hapn.cool try it!

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当下的生财之道:电子商务  

2009-05-11 22:46:01|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

1997年,当我用幸运球占卜的时候便预测亚马逊将成为“互联网界的沃尔玛”。那个时候,亚马逊规模很小,只是卖卖书,没有人相信他会有今天的成就。我的分析是亚马逊会拓展其以业务并涵盖更多的产品线,果不其然,亚马逊今天就做到了。
别再阅读经济的萧条了,用电子商务赚钱吧! - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
我不知道你是否看到了亚马逊的的财报显示,其销售额已达48.9亿,增长达18%,而净利润也增长24%达到1.77亿美元。今天,你能从亚马逊上买到摩托车零件,也能从这样的电子商务产业中看到光明。

普通的评论家会说,打折和免费的物流是孕育了亚马逊的成功。但我并不认为如此,一大堆的在线购物网站被成功的竞争伙伴们伤得很深。

在亚马逊规划的14年蓝图里,我看到了亚马逊是如果一点点的建立起电子商务领域的“良性循环”。一下就是亚马逊成功的一些要素:

1、足够多的用户,在北美有5000万。

别再阅读经济的萧条了,用电子商务赚钱吧! - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

2、相当多的社区和用户反馈。
3、庞大的选择量,甚至比沃尔玛的产品都还多。
4、共享财富分支网络,开创子公司。
5、一流的亚马逊,“ Costco公司化”的亚马逊价格俱乐部,创建
年金收入流。
6、对顶级会员免费和快速的速递。
7、对书和二手书大打折,比竞争对手要便宜三成到九成。
8、提供Alexa搜索工具条,让上网的人知道如何去寻找。
9、价格固定,这回让顾客觉得比讨价还价更有意思。
10、获得Junglee ,开辟了互联网产品搜索。
11、亚马逊CEO Jeff Bezos 面临多年亏损也不放弃的精神。
12、顾客方便至上,一键点击便成交。

现在我们处于一个在线零售与实体店零售之战的年代,除了购买特殊品,在互联网上泡大的一代都会选择在线购物。这也是实体零售店们最终不得不屈服的原因。到最后,像Circuit City和Mervyn's这样的公司都不得不关门大吉。当然,简便转账功能和欠款偿还功能的缺乏是他们失败的因素之一,但我认为用户习惯的改变才是实体店失败的重要原因。
别再阅读经济的萧条了,用电子商务赚钱吧! - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
想想那些零售商店的存货量总是很小,他们往往脱销的都是最流行的单品。商店店员总是对所销售的东西缺乏常识和动力。开车去商店需要汽油,停车去购物也很麻烦。

实体店们真的需要重新思考他们在即将到来的大转变中的处境了,他们不能再跟60年代的商店相比了。实体店的最大优势便是在这样的真实中享有满足感,即买即得。实体店拥有人性因素,人们共同享有空间,可能买一些预先没有想过的商品,当你想和家人拥有一定的距离时,他能让你感觉到“出门了”。

不仅亚马逊,淘宝、阿里巴巴、在线游戏,似乎都在如雨后春笋般蓬勃发展。

所以当你了解亚马逊一季度井喷式的营收增长时,你应该思考会有更大的产业正在发展而不是
目光短浅的只是观望。商业机会便是电子商务,不管是线上还是线下。
别再阅读经济的萧条了,用电子商务赚钱吧! - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

别再沉溺于阅读经济有多么萧条了,是时候转向经济的制强点电子商务了。(哈蒙/文  龚琼/编译)

本文为哈蒙授权网易科技独家翻译,转载请注明出处:网易科技博客。

哈蒙博客英文原文:

Steve Harmon: Where The Money Is Being Made Now: Ecommerce!

Back in 1997 I pulled out the magic 8 ball and predicted that Amazon 
wanted to be "the Walmart of the Web". At the time, nobody thought it 
would happen since Amazon was still smallish and only sold books. My 
theory was it could embrace and extend itself into any product category. 
Of course, it did.
别再阅读经济的萧条了,用电子商务赚钱吧! - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

I don't know if you caught the news the other day but Amazon reported 
record sales of $4.89 billion, up 18%, and $177 million net profit, up 
24%. And today you can get motorcycle parts and cloud services (silver 
lining?) from Amazon.

It's easy for casual observers to say discounting or free shipping 
brought on the success. I don't think so. Plenty of other online stores 
are hurting along with their offline cousins.

In 14 years charting Amazon I've seen how bit by bit it built a 
"virtuous circle" of ecommerce. These are the ingredients for Amazon's 
success:

1) critical mass of users, north of 50 million 

别再阅读经济的萧条了,用电子商务赚钱吧! - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
2) critical mass of community, user feedback

3) critical mass of selection, more products than just about anyone, 
including Walmart

4) share the wealth affiliate network that pioneered the notion of 
affiliates

5) Amazon Prime, the "Costco-ization" of Amazon as price club, creates 
annuity revenue stream

6) free and fast shipping for Prime members

7) deep discounts on books and used books, saving 30% to 90% vs. rivals

8) Alexa toolbar data extraction, giving it insight into what people 
online are looking at

9) Fixed pricing, which consumers find more attractive than bidding in 
many cases

10) acquired Junglee, which opened up Internet product search

11) Jeff Bezos, who didn't give up after years of posting net losses

12) customer convenience, 1-click buying


We are in a new era of online vs. offline retail battles as a whole 
generation that's grown up with the Web has now come to EXPECT certain 
things in their shopping experience. This is one of the contributors to 
offline retailers finally succumbing. Circuit City, Mervyn's, and 
perhaps others to come. Certainly the lack of easy credit for payroll 
and servicing debt is one factor they fell. But I believe the larger 
picture shows radical change in consumer behavior that many offline 
retailers haven't grasped yet.


别再阅读经济的萧条了,用电子商务赚钱吧! - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客

Consider that most offline retailers stock minimal products. Often they 
are out of stock of popular items. Store clerks don't always have the 
knowledge or motivation to sell the products (ask Circuit City, which 
fired its top sales people which accelerated its decline). Parking, 
hassle. Driving to the store, gas. Checkout lines.

Brick and mortar stores must really rethink their value offering in 
order to survive the coming changes. They cannot conduct retail 
operations as if it's 1960. The one major advantage a "real" store has 
is instant gratification, buy and get it now. It has the "human" 
element, people milling and sharing space. It has the "discovery" aspect 
of finding and buying something unexpected, it has the "get out of the 
house" factor when you need some space from family, etc.

Not only Amazon but Taobao, Alibaba, online gaming (which is ecommerce for games), all seem to be thriving.

So when you read about Amazon and its blowout quarter consider that 
something much larger is going on here than the short-term thinkers are 
looking at. Commerce is now ecommerce, on and offline.

It's time to stop reading about how bad the economy is and look to where the economy is growing strong: ecommerce.


别再阅读经济的萧条了,用电子商务赚钱吧! - Steve Harmon  - 史蒂夫·哈蒙独家中文博客
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